The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will finally publish the delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Traders are watching closely, as the data will offer fresh clues about the strength of the labor market and how it might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
What to Expect From September’s NFP Release?
Economists project that payrolls increased by around 50,000 in September, up from the modest 22,000 added in August. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%.
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE)—a key measure of wage inflation—are forecast to rise 3.7% year over year, matching the pace seen in August.
Analysts at TD Securities anticipate a stronger rebound, suggesting total job gains may reach 100,000, supported by a 125,000 increase in private payrolls, while government employment could fall by 25,000. They also expect wages to slow slightly to 0.2% MoM (3.6% YoY).
Impact on EUR/USD: Will the Downtrend Continue?
The US Dollar has regained strength ahead of the NFP release, pushing EUR/USD back below 1.1600 and reversing last week’s pullback. Whether the pair continues lower now depends heavily on the tone of the incoming data.
A combination of cautious Federal Reserve commentary and weaker private-sector employment figures has already dampened expectations for a 25 bps rate cut in December. Fed speakers have emphasized balancing inflation risks with a softening labor market, urging caution on further policy easing.
Minutes from the October meeting reinforced that sentiment, noting that “lower borrowing costs could undermine the fight against inflation.” Following the release, rate-cut odds for December fell to 33%, down from 50% earlier this week and 65% last week.
Other recent US data has painted a mixed picture:
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ADP report (Nov 5): Private payrolls rose 42,000, beating the 25,000 estimate.
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Challenger layoffs (Nov 6): Corporate layoff announcements surged 183% MoM, the worst October in over 20 years.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI: Dropped to 48.7, below expectations.
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ISM Services PMI: Improved to 52.4, supported by strong new orders.
Despite being delayed, the September NFP remains significant because it is likely the last full employment report available before the Fed’s December meeting.
Key EUR/USD Scenarios
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Weak NFP (below 50,000) + higher unemployment:
Would confirm slowing labor conditions, boost expectations for a December rate cut, and likely lift EUR/USD toward 1.1700. -
Strong NFP (well above expectations) + stable or lower unemployment:
Would reinforce USD strength, potentially pushing EUR/USD below 1.1400 and reducing the probability of a December rate cut.
Technical Outlook for EUR/USD
Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at BrokerTrustScore, notes:-
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EUR/USD closed below the 21-day SMA at 1.1574, signaling continued downside.
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The 14-day RSI stays well under 50, supporting bearish momentum.
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Support levels:
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1.1469 (Nov 5 low)
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1.1395 (200-day SMA)
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1.1350 (key psychological level)
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Resistance levels:
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1.1574 (21-day SMA)
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1.1650 (50-day + 100-day SMA confluence)
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1.1700 (round number)
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